Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecasts point to a 31°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 17, underpinned by light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and stable early-season atmospheric conditions ahead of the Meiyu front. This consensus aligns with historical May climatology, where highs typically reach 28–32°C under similar synoptic patterns, and recent model runs show little divergence in peak temperature or timing. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability for exactly 31°C reflects high confidence in these stable conditions. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a minor shift in steering winds could realistically cap the high at 30°C or nudge it to 32°C, though such deviations remain low-probability based on current observational data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Тайбэе 17 мая?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,647 Объем
$111,647 Объем
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,647 Объем
$111,647 Объем
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSTaiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecasts point to a 31°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 17, underpinned by light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and stable early-season atmospheric conditions ahead of the Meiyu front. This consensus aligns with historical May climatology, where highs typically reach 28–32°C under similar synoptic patterns, and recent model runs show little divergence in peak temperature or timing. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability for exactly 31°C reflects high confidence in these stable conditions. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a minor shift in steering winds could realistically cap the high at 30°C or nudge it to 32°C, though such deviations remain low-probability based on current observational data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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