Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Варшаве 17 мая?
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,840 Объем
$49,840 Объем
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,840 Объем
$49,840 Объем
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWALatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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