Recent forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models converge on an overnight low near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May synoptic conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where moderate southerly flow off the East China Sea and limited cloud cover maintain minimum temperatures within the historical 17–22°C range observed at local stations. The strong trader consensus captures this model agreement and climatological baseline, though rapid shifts in frontal passage or increased nocturnal radiative cooling could still produce a one-degree deviation by the close of the 24-hour observation period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Шанхае 17 мая?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$11,133 Объем
$11,133 Объем
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$11,133 Объем
$11,133 Объем
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models converge on an overnight low near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May synoptic conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where moderate southerly flow off the East China Sea and limited cloud cover maintain minimum temperatures within the historical 17–22°C range observed at local stations. The strong trader consensus captures this model agreement and climatological baseline, though rapid shifts in frontal passage or increased nocturnal radiative cooling could still produce a one-degree deviation by the close of the 24-hour observation period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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