Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election defending a core of Montreal-area ridings amid a broader decline in support. Recent polling aggregates place the party near 10 percent provincewide, down from 15.4 percent in 2022, with projections showing roughly 5–9 seats depending on the model. Incumbents and strong local organization in districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, and Taschereau sustain a competitive position in urban francophone and progressive areas, even as the Parti Québécois and other parties contest those seats. The 69.5 percent trader-implied probability for at least one QS win aligns with these concentrated pockets of support, while acknowledging risks from further erosion in the ongoing campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
90% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 окт. 2026 г.
Да
90% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 окт. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election defending a core of Montreal-area ridings amid a broader decline in support. Recent polling aggregates place the party near 10 percent provincewide, down from 15.4 percent in 2022, with projections showing roughly 5–9 seats depending on the model. Incumbents and strong local organization in districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, and Taschereau sustain a competitive position in urban francophone and progressive areas, even as the Parti Québécois and other parties contest those seats. The 69.5 percent trader-implied probability for at least one QS win aligns with these concentrated pockets of support, while acknowledging risks from further erosion in the ongoing campaign.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Объем
$401Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election defending a core of Montreal-area ridings amid a broader decline in support. Recent polling aggregates place the party near 10 percent provincewide, down from 15.4 percent in 2022, with projections showing roughly 5–9 seats depending on the model. Incumbents and strong local organization in districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, and Taschereau sustain a competitive position in urban francophone and progressive areas, even as the Parti Québécois and other parties contest those seats. The 69.5 percent trader-implied probability for at least one QS win aligns with these concentrated pockets of support, while acknowledging risks from further erosion in the ongoing campaign.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Объем
$401Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election defending a core of Montreal-area ridings amid a broader decline in support. Recent polling aggregates place the party near 10 percent provincewide, down from 15.4 percent in 2022, with projections showing roughly 5–9 seats depending on the model. Incumbents and strong local organization in districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, and Taschereau sustain a competitive position in urban francophone and progressive areas, even as the Parti Québécois and other parties contest those seats. The 69.5 percent trader-implied probability for at least one QS win aligns with these concentrated pockets of support, while acknowledging risks from further erosion in the ongoing campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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