Recent developments in euro area monetary policy have shifted trader expectations sharply away from any ECB rate cut in 2026. Eurozone headline inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, exceeding the 2% target amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions and the Iran conflict. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, with ECB President Lagarde noting intensified upside inflation risks alongside subdued growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter. Professional forecasters now project 2026 inflation near 2.7%, prompting analysts including those at Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg surveys to anticipate possible 25-basis-point hikes in June and September rather than easing. This hawkish pivot underpins the 88% implied probability that the ECB will not deliver a rate cut by year-end, as persistent price pressures outweigh weak economic momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
$27,913 ปริมาณ
$27,913 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$27,913 ปริมาณ
$27,913 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in euro area monetary policy have shifted trader expectations sharply away from any ECB rate cut in 2026. Eurozone headline inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, exceeding the 2% target amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions and the Iran conflict. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, with ECB President Lagarde noting intensified upside inflation risks alongside subdued growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter. Professional forecasters now project 2026 inflation near 2.7%, prompting analysts including those at Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg surveys to anticipate possible 25-basis-point hikes in June and September rather than easing. This hawkish pivot underpins the 88% implied probability that the ECB will not deliver a rate cut by year-end, as persistent price pressures outweigh weak economic momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,913วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in euro area monetary policy have shifted trader expectations sharply away from any ECB rate cut in 2026. Eurozone headline inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, exceeding the 2% target amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions and the Iran conflict. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, with ECB President Lagarde noting intensified upside inflation risks alongside subdued growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter. Professional forecasters now project 2026 inflation near 2.7%, prompting analysts including those at Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg surveys to anticipate possible 25-basis-point hikes in June and September rather than easing. This hawkish pivot underpins the 88% implied probability that the ECB will not deliver a rate cut by year-end, as persistent price pressures outweigh weak economic momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,913วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in euro area monetary policy have shifted trader expectations sharply away from any ECB rate cut in 2026. Eurozone headline inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, exceeding the 2% target amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions and the Iran conflict. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, with ECB President Lagarde noting intensified upside inflation risks alongside subdued growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter. Professional forecasters now project 2026 inflation near 2.7%, prompting analysts including those at Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg surveys to anticipate possible 25-basis-point hikes in June and September rather than easing. This hawkish pivot underpins the 88% implied probability that the ECB will not deliver a rate cut by year-end, as persistent price pressures outweigh weak economic momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย