Recent global temperature observations show April 2026 registering approximately 1.0 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline in GISTEMP data, with model ensembles projecting a modest May value amid lingering neutral ENSO conditions. The rapid transition toward El Niño now favored by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for May–July 2026 has not yet produced substantial warming, as ocean-atmosphere coupling and atmospheric responses typically lag by several months. This timing, combined with residual cooling from the prior La Niña episode, anchors trader consensus on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin while keeping higher bins at low probability. Updated seasonal forecasts and the first full-month May satellite and reanalysis releases in early June will provide the next key data points for refining these implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 58%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
$51,336 ปริมาณ
$51,336 ปริมาณ
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
58%
1.15–1.19ºC
21%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
4%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 58%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
$51,336 ปริมาณ
$51,336 ปริมาณ
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$22,495 ปริมาณ
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,845 ปริมาณ
58%
1.15–1.19ºC
$6,093 ปริมาณ
21%
1.20–1.24ºC
$4,586 ปริมาณ
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,173 ปริมาณ
4%
>1.29ºC
$7,145 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global temperature observations show April 2026 registering approximately 1.0 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline in GISTEMP data, with model ensembles projecting a modest May value amid lingering neutral ENSO conditions. The rapid transition toward El Niño now favored by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for May–July 2026 has not yet produced substantial warming, as ocean-atmosphere coupling and atmospheric responses typically lag by several months. This timing, combined with residual cooling from the prior La Niña episode, anchors trader consensus on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin while keeping higher bins at low probability. Updated seasonal forecasts and the first full-month May satellite and reanalysis releases in early June will provide the next key data points for refining these implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$51,336วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global temperature observations show April 2026 registering approximately 1.0 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline in GISTEMP data, with model ensembles projecting a modest May value amid lingering neutral ENSO conditions. The rapid transition toward El Niño now favored by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for May–July 2026 has not yet produced substantial warming, as ocean-atmosphere coupling and atmospheric responses typically lag by several months. This timing, combined with residual cooling from the prior La Niña episode, anchors trader consensus on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin while keeping higher bins at low probability. Updated seasonal forecasts and the first full-month May satellite and reanalysis releases in early June will provide the next key data points for refining these implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$51,336วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature observations show April 2026 registering approximately 1.0 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline in GISTEMP data, with model ensembles projecting a modest May value amid lingering neutral ENSO conditions. The rapid transition toward El Niño now favored by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for May–July 2026 has not yet produced substantial warming, as ocean-atmosphere coupling and atmospheric responses typically lag by several months. This timing, combined with residual cooling from the prior La Niña episode, anchors trader consensus on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin while keeping higher bins at low probability. Updated seasonal forecasts and the first full-month May satellite and reanalysis releases in early June will provide the next key data points for refining these implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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