Recent short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate Beijing’s highest temperature on May 18 will most likely reach 25–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest boundary-layer mixing. These conditions produce a narrow range of possible maxima because daytime solar heating is moderated by scattered cloud cover and limited advection of warmer air masses. Trader consensus clusters around 26 °C precisely because ensemble spread remains small, with only modest upside risk from reduced cloudiness or localized urban heat-island amplification. Key resolution hinges on official station readings tomorrow evening; any last-minute shift in steering flow or unexpected convective development could nudge the outcome by 1–2 °C.