NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around an 83% probability of no major strike. Recent small fireballs, including the March 17 Ohio event releasing just 0.25 kt, and safe close approaches by objects like 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2 highlight effective detection networks but remain far below threshold yields. Historical frequency of such events—roughly once per decade—combined with ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey reinforces the outlook, though traders note that a late-detected sub-30-meter asteroid could still alter odds before year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,583 Vol.
$153,583 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,583 Vol.
$153,583 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around an 83% probability of no major strike. Recent small fireballs, including the March 17 Ohio event releasing just 0.25 kt, and safe close approaches by objects like 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2 highlight effective detection networks but remain far below threshold yields. Historical frequency of such events—roughly once per decade—combined with ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey reinforces the outlook, though traders note that a late-detected sub-30-meter asteroid could still alter odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,583Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around an 83% probability of no major strike. Recent small fireballs, including the March 17 Ohio event releasing just 0.25 kt, and safe close approaches by objects like 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2 highlight effective detection networks but remain far below threshold yields. Historical frequency of such events—roughly once per decade—combined with ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey reinforces the outlook, though traders note that a late-detected sub-30-meter asteroid could still alter odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$154,092Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around an 83% probability of no major strike. Recent small fireballs, including the March 17 Ohio event releasing just 0.25 kt, and safe close approaches by objects like 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2 highlight effective detection networks but remain far below threshold yields. Historical frequency of such events—roughly once per decade—combined with ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey reinforces the outlook, though traders note that a late-detected sub-30-meter asteroid could still alter odds before year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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