**The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn’s resignation on 14 May after his election as an MSP, is scheduled for 18 June.** Richard Gordon Thomson, the SNP candidate and former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency, leads trader consensus at around 72% implied probability. This reflects the party’s long-standing hold on the seat since 2019, Thomson’s regional name recognition, and his background in energy and local issues. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative candidate, trails at 27%, with traders pricing in a competitive but secondary position amid the party’s focus on North Sea oil and gas policy as a key campaign theme. Other declared candidates, including Labour’s Nurul Hoque Ali and smaller-party entrants, trade at negligible levels consistent with limited expected support under first-past-the-post. With polling days away, recent campaign emphasis on energy strategy and constituency boundaries has reinforced the SNP’s frontrunner status in trader assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRichard Gordon Thomson 72%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%
$10,267 Обс.
$10,267 Обс.
Richard Gordon Thomson
72%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
David Ballantine
<1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Mel Sullivan
<1%
Richard Gordon Thomson 72%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%
$10,267 Обс.
$10,267 Обс.
Richard Gordon Thomson
72%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
David Ballantine
<1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Mel Sullivan
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn’s resignation on 14 May after his election as an MSP, is scheduled for 18 June.** Richard Gordon Thomson, the SNP candidate and former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency, leads trader consensus at around 72% implied probability. This reflects the party’s long-standing hold on the seat since 2019, Thomson’s regional name recognition, and his background in energy and local issues. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative candidate, trails at 27%, with traders pricing in a competitive but secondary position amid the party’s focus on North Sea oil and gas policy as a key campaign theme. Other declared candidates, including Labour’s Nurul Hoque Ali and smaller-party entrants, trade at negligible levels consistent with limited expected support under first-past-the-post. With polling days away, recent campaign emphasis on energy strategy and constituency boundaries has reinforced the SNP’s frontrunner status in trader assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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