Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F in San Francisco on May 13, driven by verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground and National Weather Service records. Cool marine air persisted under a persistent stratus layer typical of "May Gray" conditions, with onshore winds limiting daytime heating and keeping peaks in this range—consistent with May climatology averaging 65-68°F highs amid upwelling of chilly Pacific waters. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from NOAA or NWS confirming sensor anomalies or overlooked peak readings above 66°F, though such corrections are infrequent for established ASOS metrics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 13?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 13?
64-65°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$53,832 Обс.
$53,832 Обс.
May 13, 2026
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
Yes
66°F or higher
No
64-65°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$53,832 Обс.
$53,832 Обс.
May 13, 2026
47°F or below
$2,019 Обс.
No
48-49°F
$1,067 Обс.
No
50-51°F
$2,137 Обс.
No
52-53°F
$2,855 Обс.
No
54-55°F
$2,322 Обс.
No
56-57°F
$3,509 Обс.
No
58-59°F
$7,949 Обс.
No
60-61°F
$8,505 Обс.
No
62-63°F
$6,514 Обс.
No
64-65°F
$6,273 Обс.
Yes
66°F or higher
$10,681 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F in San Francisco on May 13, driven by verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground and National Weather Service records. Cool marine air persisted under a persistent stratus layer typical of "May Gray" conditions, with onshore winds limiting daytime heating and keeping peaks in this range—consistent with May climatology averaging 65-68°F highs amid upwelling of chilly Pacific waters. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from NOAA or NWS confirming sensor anomalies or overlooked peak readings above 66°F, though such corrections are infrequent for established ASOS metrics.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 11, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Обсяг
$53,832Дата завершення
May 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 12:11 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F in San Francisco on May 13, driven by verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground and National Weather Service records. Cool marine air persisted under a persistent stratus layer typical of "May Gray" conditions, with onshore winds limiting daytime heating and keeping peaks in this range—consistent with May climatology averaging 65-68°F highs amid upwelling of chilly Pacific waters. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from NOAA or NWS confirming sensor anomalies or overlooked peak readings above 66°F, though such corrections are infrequent for established ASOS metrics.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$53,832Дата завершення
May 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 12:11 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F in San Francisco on May 13, driven by verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground and National Weather Service records. Cool marine air persisted under a persistent stratus layer typical of "May Gray" conditions, with onshore winds limiting daytime heating and keeping peaks in this range—consistent with May climatology averaging 65-68°F highs amid upwelling of chilly Pacific waters. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from NOAA or NWS confirming sensor anomalies or overlooked peak readings above 66°F, though such corrections are infrequent for established ASOS metrics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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