The overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 7°C overnight low in London on May 16 stems from the Met Office forecast, which projects that exact minimum amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph. These conditions limit radiative cooling and vertical mixing in the boundary layer, while the urban heat-island effect around central stations adds 1–2°C relative to rural sites, keeping temperatures aligned with mid-May climatology. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 6–8°C with minimal spread. Only an unexpected partial clearing or stronger northerly advection overnight could realistically push the minimum toward 5°C or below, though current observational trends and consensus make such a shift unlikely before final resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in London on May 16?
Lowest temperature in London on May 16?
7°C 99.8%
4°C <1%
6°C <1%
0°C or below <1%
$23,227 KL.
$23,227 KL.
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C or higher
<1%
7°C 99.8%
4°C <1%
6°C <1%
0°C or below <1%
$23,227 KL.
$23,227 KL.
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
$345 KL.
<1%
1°C
$910 KL.
<1%
2°C
$508 KL.
<1%
3°C
$3,247 KL.
<1%
4°C
$4,247 KL.
1%
5°C
$972 KL.
<1%
6°C
$1,285 KL.
<1%
7°C
$2,265 KL.
100%
8°C
$827 KL.
<1%
9°C
$573 KL.
<1%
10°C or higher
$8,048 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 7°C overnight low in London on May 16 stems from the Met Office forecast, which projects that exact minimum amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph. These conditions limit radiative cooling and vertical mixing in the boundary layer, while the urban heat-island effect around central stations adds 1–2°C relative to rural sites, keeping temperatures aligned with mid-May climatology. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 6–8°C with minimal spread. Only an unexpected partial clearing or stronger northerly advection overnight could realistically push the minimum toward 5°C or below, though current observational trends and consensus make such a shift unlikely before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$23,227Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 7°C overnight low in London on May 16 stems from the Met Office forecast, which projects that exact minimum amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph. These conditions limit radiative cooling and vertical mixing in the boundary layer, while the urban heat-island effect around central stations adds 1–2°C relative to rural sites, keeping temperatures aligned with mid-May climatology. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 6–8°C with minimal spread. Only an unexpected partial clearing or stronger northerly advection overnight could realistically push the minimum toward 5°C or below, though current observational trends and consensus make such a shift unlikely before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$23,227Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 7°C overnight low in London on May 16 stems from the Met Office forecast, which projects that exact minimum amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph. These conditions limit radiative cooling and vertical mixing in the boundary layer, while the urban heat-island effect around central stations adds 1–2°C relative to rural sites, keeping temperatures aligned with mid-May climatology. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 6–8°C with minimal spread. Only an unexpected partial clearing or stronger northerly advection overnight could realistically push the minimum toward 5°C or below, though current observational trends and consensus make such a shift unlikely before final resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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