European leaders from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have repeatedly framed their responses to recent Iranian missile and drone activity as strictly defensive, focusing on protecting regional shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and supporting allied air defenses rather than launching offensive operations. Joint statements since late February have condemned Iranian strikes while stressing coordination with the United States and allies for proportionate measures, alongside active diplomatic pushes for negotiations and de-escalation. Domestic political constraints, economic risks from oil market disruptions, and limited appetite for direct military engagement have reinforced this positioning through early May. Trader consensus pricing "No" near 95 percent reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPháp, Anh hay Đức sẽ tấn công Iran trước ngày 30 tháng 6?
Pháp, Anh hay Đức sẽ tấn công Iran trước ngày 30 tháng 6?
Có
$1,384,027 KL.
$1,384,027 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Có
$1,384,027 KL.
$1,384,027 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have repeatedly framed their responses to recent Iranian missile and drone activity as strictly defensive, focusing on protecting regional shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and supporting allied air defenses rather than launching offensive operations. Joint statements since late February have condemned Iranian strikes while stressing coordination with the United States and allies for proportionate measures, alongside active diplomatic pushes for negotiations and de-escalation. Domestic political constraints, economic risks from oil market disruptions, and limited appetite for direct military engagement have reinforced this positioning through early May. Trader consensus pricing "No" near 95 percent reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,384,027Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have repeatedly framed their responses to recent Iranian missile and drone activity as strictly defensive, focusing on protecting regional shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and supporting allied air defenses rather than launching offensive operations. Joint statements since late February have condemned Iranian strikes while stressing coordination with the United States and allies for proportionate measures, alongside active diplomatic pushes for negotiations and de-escalation. Domestic political constraints, economic risks from oil market disruptions, and limited appetite for direct military engagement have reinforced this positioning through early May. Trader consensus pricing "No" near 95 percent reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,384,027Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have repeatedly framed their responses to recent Iranian missile and drone activity as strictly defensive, focusing on protecting regional shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and supporting allied air defenses rather than launching offensive operations. Joint statements since late February have condemned Iranian strikes while stressing coordination with the United States and allies for proportionate measures, alongside active diplomatic pushes for negotiations and de-escalation. Domestic political constraints, economic risks from oil market disruptions, and limited appetite for direct military engagement have reinforced this positioning through early May. Trader consensus pricing "No" near 95 percent reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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