Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have slashed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil exports pre-February 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily transits averaging under 10 vessels since late April, versus the historical 130-plus norm, as Iranian controls and U.S. escort initiatives like Project Freedom introduce uncertainty around clearance and safety. This has driven sharp rises in VLCC tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility, with Asian refiners facing refined-product shortages. Recent modest increases to around 10-20 vessels on select days, tied to Iranian permit systems and limited naval protection, now shape trader views on whether any single day by May 31 will clear the 20-ship threshold amid ongoing negotiations and potential last-minute de-escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$489,062 KL.
May 31, 2026
20+
46%
40+
10%
60+
6%
80+
3%
$489,062 KL.
20+
$115,358 KL.
46%
40+
$123,236 KL.
10%
60+
$68,431 KL.
6%
80+
$182,038 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have slashed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil exports pre-February 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily transits averaging under 10 vessels since late April, versus the historical 130-plus norm, as Iranian controls and U.S. escort initiatives like Project Freedom introduce uncertainty around clearance and safety. This has driven sharp rises in VLCC tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility, with Asian refiners facing refined-product shortages. Recent modest increases to around 10-20 vessels on select days, tied to Iranian permit systems and limited naval protection, now shape trader views on whether any single day by May 31 will clear the 20-ship threshold amid ongoing negotiations and potential last-minute de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Khối lượng
$489,062Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have slashed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil exports pre-February 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily transits averaging under 10 vessels since late April, versus the historical 130-plus norm, as Iranian controls and U.S. escort initiatives like Project Freedom introduce uncertainty around clearance and safety. This has driven sharp rises in VLCC tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility, with Asian refiners facing refined-product shortages. Recent modest increases to around 10-20 vessels on select days, tied to Iranian permit systems and limited naval protection, now shape trader views on whether any single day by May 31 will clear the 20-ship threshold amid ongoing negotiations and potential last-minute de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$489,062Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran have slashed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil exports pre-February 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily transits averaging under 10 vessels since late April, versus the historical 130-plus norm, as Iranian controls and U.S. escort initiatives like Project Freedom introduce uncertainty around clearance and safety. This has driven sharp rises in VLCC tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility, with Asian refiners facing refined-product shortages. Recent modest increases to around 10-20 vessels on select days, tied to Iranian permit systems and limited naval protection, now shape trader views on whether any single day by May 31 will clear the 20-ship threshold amid ongoing negotiations and potential last-minute de-escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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