The Iranian regime's recent moves to dictate ceasefire terms and rebuild internal security forces after the 2026 conflict underscore its institutional durability and perceived upper hand in ongoing diplomacy. With no large-scale domestic uprisings materializing despite economic strain and prior military losses, traders assign a 95.5 percent implied probability that the leadership will remain in place through June 30. This consensus reflects the absence of immediate triggers such as mass protests or decisive external intervention. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, unexpected succession instability, or coordinated opposition mobilization within the short resolution window.