No known near-Earth objects in NASA and ESA catalogs carry trajectories that could produce a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, supporting the market-implied 74% probability for “No.” Sentry and Scout monitoring systems continue to flag only distant, safe approaches by house-sized or smaller asteroids, aligning with the low historical frequency of such energetic bolides—typically one every several years based on CNEOS fireball records. Recent detections, including small objects like 2026 JN4, have been refined to sub-kiloton scales or confirmed as non-impacts, while annual meteor showers lack the mass and velocity needed to reach the threshold. Ongoing surveys, including early LSST operations, have not identified new risks, though traders note that an undetected object discovered late in the year could still shift odds before resolution via the JPL Fireball database.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
26% 機率
$312,772 交易量
$312,772 交易量
2026-12-31
是
26% 機率
$312,772 交易量
$312,772 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects in NASA and ESA catalogs carry trajectories that could produce a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, supporting the market-implied 74% probability for “No.” Sentry and Scout monitoring systems continue to flag only distant, safe approaches by house-sized or smaller asteroids, aligning with the low historical frequency of such energetic bolides—typically one every several years based on CNEOS fireball records. Recent detections, including small objects like 2026 JN4, have been refined to sub-kiloton scales or confirmed as non-impacts, while annual meteor showers lack the mass and velocity needed to reach the threshold. Ongoing surveys, including early LSST operations, have not identified new risks, though traders note that an undetected object discovered late in the year could still shift odds before resolution via the JPL Fireball database.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$312,772結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects in NASA and ESA catalogs carry trajectories that could produce a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, supporting the market-implied 74% probability for “No.” Sentry and Scout monitoring systems continue to flag only distant, safe approaches by house-sized or smaller asteroids, aligning with the low historical frequency of such energetic bolides—typically one every several years based on CNEOS fireball records. Recent detections, including small objects like 2026 JN4, have been refined to sub-kiloton scales or confirmed as non-impacts, while annual meteor showers lack the mass and velocity needed to reach the threshold. Ongoing surveys, including early LSST operations, have not identified new risks, though traders note that an undetected object discovered late in the year could still shift odds before resolution via the JPL Fireball database.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$312,772結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETNo known near-Earth objects in NASA and ESA catalogs carry trajectories that could produce a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, supporting the market-implied 74% probability for “No.” Sentry and Scout monitoring systems continue to flag only distant, safe approaches by house-sized or smaller asteroids, aligning with the low historical frequency of such energetic bolides—typically one every several years based on CNEOS fireball records. Recent detections, including small objects like 2026 JN4, have been refined to sub-kiloton scales or confirmed as non-impacts, while annual meteor showers lack the mass and velocity needed to reach the threshold. Ongoing surveys, including early LSST operations, have not identified new risks, though traders note that an undetected object discovered late in the year could still shift odds before resolution via the JPL Fireball database.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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