No known near-Earth objects currently tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or the Sentry system pose any credible risk of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent atmospheric impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 62.5% implied probability for “No.” Historical bolide data indicate such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually on average, with 2026 showing elevated small-fireball detections yet none exceeding 0.25 kt so far. Undetected meter-scale meteoroids could still produce qualifying yields, but ongoing infrasound and satellite networks make a late-year surprise increasingly constrained as monitoring continues through December.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects currently tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or the Sentry system pose any credible risk of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent atmospheric impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 62.5% implied probability for “No.” Historical bolide data indicate such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually on average, with 2026 showing elevated small-fireball detections yet none exceeding 0.25 kt so far. Undetected meter-scale meteoroids could still produce qualifying yields, but ongoing infrasound and satellite networks make a late-year surprise increasingly constrained as monitoring continues through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$300,653結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects currently tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or the Sentry system pose any credible risk of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent atmospheric impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 62.5% implied probability for “No.” Historical bolide data indicate such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually on average, with 2026 showing elevated small-fireball detections yet none exceeding 0.25 kt so far. Undetected meter-scale meteoroids could still produce qualifying yields, but ongoing infrasound and satellite networks make a late-year surprise increasingly constrained as monitoring continues through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$300,653結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects currently tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or the Sentry system pose any credible risk of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent atmospheric impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 62.5% implied probability for “No.” Historical bolide data indicate such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually on average, with 2026 showing elevated small-fireball detections yet none exceeding 0.25 kt so far. Undetected meter-scale meteoroids could still produce qualifying yields, but ongoing infrasound and satellite networks make a late-year surprise increasingly constrained as monitoring continues through December.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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