Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA and ESA continue to identify no known near-Earth objects with trajectories that could produce a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 62.5% probability for “No.” Smaller meteoroids capable of such energy releases—roughly 5–10 meters across—enter Earth’s atmosphere unpredictably several times per decade on average, yet comprehensive orbital tracking shows no candidates aligned for next year. Recent safe close approaches, such as asteroid 2026 JH2, reinforce the pattern of frequent near-misses without collision. While undiscovered objects introduce inherent uncertainty, current model consensus and monitoring data sustain trader sentiment favoring absence of a qualifying event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA and ESA continue to identify no known near-Earth objects with trajectories that could produce a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 62.5% probability for “No.” Smaller meteoroids capable of such energy releases—roughly 5–10 meters across—enter Earth’s atmosphere unpredictably several times per decade on average, yet comprehensive orbital tracking shows no candidates aligned for next year. Recent safe close approaches, such as asteroid 2026 JH2, reinforce the pattern of frequent near-misses without collision. While undiscovered objects introduce inherent uncertainty, current model consensus and monitoring data sustain trader sentiment favoring absence of a qualifying event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$300,653結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA and ESA continue to identify no known near-Earth objects with trajectories that could produce a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 62.5% probability for “No.” Smaller meteoroids capable of such energy releases—roughly 5–10 meters across—enter Earth’s atmosphere unpredictably several times per decade on average, yet comprehensive orbital tracking shows no candidates aligned for next year. Recent safe close approaches, such as asteroid 2026 JH2, reinforce the pattern of frequent near-misses without collision. While undiscovered objects introduce inherent uncertainty, current model consensus and monitoring data sustain trader sentiment favoring absence of a qualifying event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$300,653結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA and ESA continue to identify no known near-Earth objects with trajectories that could produce a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 62.5% probability for “No.” Smaller meteoroids capable of such energy releases—roughly 5–10 meters across—enter Earth’s atmosphere unpredictably several times per decade on average, yet comprehensive orbital tracking shows no candidates aligned for next year. Recent safe close approaches, such as asteroid 2026 JH2, reinforce the pattern of frequent near-misses without collision. While undiscovered objects introduce inherent uncertainty, current model consensus and monitoring data sustain trader sentiment favoring absence of a qualifying event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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