**No at 75%** reflects trader consensus that the remaining three-plus months of 2026 are unlikely to produce a confirmed natural bolide airburst releasing ≥5 kt TNT equivalent. NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring report no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold, while recent fireballs (including Midwest and other September 2026 events) have registered well below it. Historical records from global infrasound and satellite networks show such events occur on roughly annual timescales, yielding a Poisson-derived probability of roughly 20–30% for the balance of the year once small-object detections and ocean/uninhabited impacts are factored in. Sentry and Scout systems continue to flag only distant, low-risk approaches, and no new high-energy candidates have emerged from ongoing surveys. Resolution hinges on the JPL Fireball repository or equivalent authoritative confirmation by early 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
25% 機率
$313,836 交易量
$313,836 交易量
2026-12-31
是
25% 機率
$313,836 交易量
$313,836 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 75%** reflects trader consensus that the remaining three-plus months of 2026 are unlikely to produce a confirmed natural bolide airburst releasing ≥5 kt TNT equivalent. NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring report no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold, while recent fireballs (including Midwest and other September 2026 events) have registered well below it. Historical records from global infrasound and satellite networks show such events occur on roughly annual timescales, yielding a Poisson-derived probability of roughly 20–30% for the balance of the year once small-object detections and ocean/uninhabited impacts are factored in. Sentry and Scout systems continue to flag only distant, low-risk approaches, and no new high-energy candidates have emerged from ongoing surveys. Resolution hinges on the JPL Fireball repository or equivalent authoritative confirmation by early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$313,836結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 75%** reflects trader consensus that the remaining three-plus months of 2026 are unlikely to produce a confirmed natural bolide airburst releasing ≥5 kt TNT equivalent. NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring report no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold, while recent fireballs (including Midwest and other September 2026 events) have registered well below it. Historical records from global infrasound and satellite networks show such events occur on roughly annual timescales, yielding a Poisson-derived probability of roughly 20–30% for the balance of the year once small-object detections and ocean/uninhabited impacts are factored in. Sentry and Scout systems continue to flag only distant, low-risk approaches, and no new high-energy candidates have emerged from ongoing surveys. Resolution hinges on the JPL Fireball repository or equivalent authoritative confirmation by early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$313,836結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET**No at 75%** reflects trader consensus that the remaining three-plus months of 2026 are unlikely to produce a confirmed natural bolide airburst releasing ≥5 kt TNT equivalent. NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring report no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold, while recent fireballs (including Midwest and other September 2026 events) have registered well below it. Historical records from global infrasound and satellite networks show such events occur on roughly annual timescales, yielding a Poisson-derived probability of roughly 20–30% for the balance of the year once small-object detections and ocean/uninhabited impacts are factored in. Sentry and Scout systems continue to flag only distant, low-risk approaches, and no new high-energy candidates have emerged from ongoing surveys. Resolution hinges on the JPL Fireball repository or equivalent authoritative confirmation by early 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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