Skip to main content
icon for 2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？
政治·中期

2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？

icon for 2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？
政治·中期

2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？

$323,277 交易量

Polymarket

$323,277 交易量

政府關閉與民主黨

$50,353 交易量

78%

政府關門與共和黨

$63,323 交易量

22%

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.The trader consensus heavily favoring a government shutdown combined with Democratic House control reflects entrenched partisan divides over appropriations and continuing resolutions in a narrowly divided Congress. With Republicans holding thin majorities after 2024, repeated delays in passing full-year funding measures have elevated shutdown risks ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders view Democratic gains in the lower chamber as likely amid voter focus on fiscal gridlock and spending priorities, consistent with historical patterns where budget standoffs influence midterm turnout in swing districts. Key upcoming deadlines through late 2025 and early 2026 remain the primary catalysts that could adjust these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$323,277
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.The trader consensus heavily favoring a government shutdown combined with Democratic House control reflects entrenched partisan divides over appropriations and continuing resolutions in a narrowly divided Congress. With Republicans holding thin majorities after 2024, repeated delays in passing full-year funding measures have elevated shutdown risks ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders view Democratic gains in the lower chamber as likely amid voter focus on fiscal gridlock and spending priorities, consistent with historical patterns where budget standoffs influence midterm turnout in swing districts. Key upcoming deadlines through late 2025 and early 2026 remain the primary catalysts that could adjust these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$323,277
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "政府關閉與民主黨" at 78%, followed by "政府關門與共和黨" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？" has generated $323.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？" is "政府關閉與民主黨" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "政府關門與共和黨" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年又一次美國政府關門和眾議院贏家？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.