Adelita Grijalva’s position as the Democratic incumbent, following her 2025 special election victory in the heavily Democratic Arizona 7th district, anchors trader expectations for the November 2026 general election. The district’s partisan voting index near D+13, its majority-Hispanic composition along the southern border, and Grijalva’s primary win on July 21 have reinforced the seat’s classification as solid Democratic by forecasters. Republican nominee Daniel Butierez faces structural headwinds in a constituency that delivered the Democratic candidate nearly 69 percent in the prior contest. Limited campaign activity since the primaries and the absence of competitive polling have kept implied probabilities stable. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or significant shift in turnout patterns among border communities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$32,760 交易量
$32,760 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$32,760 交易量
$32,760 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$5,795 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$26,965 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva’s position as the Democratic incumbent, following her 2025 special election victory in the heavily Democratic Arizona 7th district, anchors trader expectations for the November 2026 general election. The district’s partisan voting index near D+13, its majority-Hispanic composition along the southern border, and Grijalva’s primary win on July 21 have reinforced the seat’s classification as solid Democratic by forecasters. Republican nominee Daniel Butierez faces structural headwinds in a constituency that delivered the Democratic candidate nearly 69 percent in the prior contest. Limited campaign activity since the primaries and the absence of competitive polling have kept implied probabilities stable. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or significant shift in turnout patterns among border communities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$32,760結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva’s position as the Democratic incumbent, following her 2025 special election victory in the heavily Democratic Arizona 7th district, anchors trader expectations for the November 2026 general election. The district’s partisan voting index near D+13, its majority-Hispanic composition along the southern border, and Grijalva’s primary win on July 21 have reinforced the seat’s classification as solid Democratic by forecasters. Republican nominee Daniel Butierez faces structural headwinds in a constituency that delivered the Democratic candidate nearly 69 percent in the prior contest. Limited campaign activity since the primaries and the absence of competitive polling have kept implied probabilities stable. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or significant shift in turnout patterns among border communities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,760結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva’s position as the Democratic incumbent, following her 2025 special election victory in the heavily Democratic Arizona 7th district, anchors trader expectations for the November 2026 general election. The district’s partisan voting index near D+13, its majority-Hispanic composition along the southern border, and Grijalva’s primary win on July 21 have reinforced the seat’s classification as solid Democratic by forecasters. Republican nominee Daniel Butierez faces structural headwinds in a constituency that delivered the Democratic candidate nearly 69 percent in the prior contest. Limited campaign activity since the primaries and the absence of competitive polling have kept implied probabilities stable. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or significant shift in turnout patterns among border communities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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