Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls consistently place the Liberal Party senator behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva yet well ahead of other right-wing contenders. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement consolidated opposition support around his son, enabling Flávio to draw evangelical and conservative voters while Lula campaigns for a fourth term at age 80. The field remains fragmented, with governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado polling in single digits and smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and Michelle Bolsonaro drawing minimal shares. Recent surveys from Quaest and Ideia confirm Lula’s first-round edge but show Flávio maintaining a clear second-place position amid economic pressures and polarized voter blocs, keeping the implied probability for his runner-up finish elevated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於弗拉維奧·波索納羅 62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 16%
雷南·桑托斯 7.7%
羅梅烏·澤馬 6.5%
$3,523,888 交易量
$3,523,888 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
16%
雷南·桑托斯
8%
羅梅烏·澤馬
6%
米歇爾·波索納羅
3%
費爾南多·哈達
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
2%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
<1%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
<1%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 16%
雷南·桑托斯 7.7%
羅梅烏·澤馬 6.5%
$3,523,888 交易量
$3,523,888 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
$56,396 交易量
62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
$67,544 交易量
16%
雷南·桑托斯
$995,940 交易量
8%
羅梅烏·澤馬
$256,386 交易量
6%
米歇爾·波索納羅
$72,836 交易量
3%
費爾南多·哈達
$651,329 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
$56,064 交易量
2%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
$289,157 交易量
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,364 交易量
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$111,040 交易量
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
$642,631 交易量
<1%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
$2,853 交易量
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
$29,825 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
$48,401 交易量
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
$2,260 交易量
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
$77,363 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
$40,500 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls consistently place the Liberal Party senator behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva yet well ahead of other right-wing contenders. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement consolidated opposition support around his son, enabling Flávio to draw evangelical and conservative voters while Lula campaigns for a fourth term at age 80. The field remains fragmented, with governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado polling in single digits and smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and Michelle Bolsonaro drawing minimal shares. Recent surveys from Quaest and Ideia confirm Lula’s first-round edge but show Flávio maintaining a clear second-place position amid economic pressures and polarized voter blocs, keeping the implied probability for his runner-up finish elevated.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$3,523,888結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls consistently place the Liberal Party senator behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva yet well ahead of other right-wing contenders. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement consolidated opposition support around his son, enabling Flávio to draw evangelical and conservative voters while Lula campaigns for a fourth term at age 80. The field remains fragmented, with governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado polling in single digits and smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and Michelle Bolsonaro drawing minimal shares. Recent surveys from Quaest and Ideia confirm Lula’s first-round edge but show Flávio maintaining a clear second-place position amid economic pressures and polarized voter blocs, keeping the implied probability for his runner-up finish elevated.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$3,523,888結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls consistently place the Liberal Party senator behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva yet well ahead of other right-wing contenders. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement consolidated opposition support around his son, enabling Flávio to draw evangelical and conservative voters while Lula campaigns for a fourth term at age 80. The field remains fragmented, with governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado polling in single digits and smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and Michelle Bolsonaro drawing minimal shares. Recent surveys from Quaest and Ideia confirm Lula’s first-round edge but show Flávio maintaining a clear second-place position amid economic pressures and polarized voter blocs, keeping the implied probability for his runner-up finish elevated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions