California's 26th congressional district, an open seat following the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a strong partisan lean that underpins the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in the general election matchup. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee and Sam Gallucci as the Republican, with Irwin securing over 41% of the vote in a field that included multiple Democratic contenders. This outcome reflects the district's voter registration advantage and historical performance in Ventura County areas. While a national Republican surge or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow margins, structural factors such as the district's electoral composition and California's primary system make significant shifts unlikely before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$32,154 交易量
$32,154 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
6%
$32,154 交易量
$32,154 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$16,426 交易量
95%
共和黨
$15,728 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district, an open seat following the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a strong partisan lean that underpins the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in the general election matchup. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee and Sam Gallucci as the Republican, with Irwin securing over 41% of the vote in a field that included multiple Democratic contenders. This outcome reflects the district's voter registration advantage and historical performance in Ventura County areas. While a national Republican surge or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow margins, structural factors such as the district's electoral composition and California's primary system make significant shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$32,154結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district, an open seat following the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a strong partisan lean that underpins the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in the general election matchup. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee and Sam Gallucci as the Republican, with Irwin securing over 41% of the vote in a field that included multiple Democratic contenders. This outcome reflects the district's voter registration advantage and historical performance in Ventura County areas. While a national Republican surge or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow margins, structural factors such as the district's electoral composition and California's primary system make significant shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,154結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 26th congressional district, an open seat following the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a strong partisan lean that underpins the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in the general election matchup. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee and Sam Gallucci as the Republican, with Irwin securing over 41% of the vote in a field that included multiple Democratic contenders. This outcome reflects the district's voter registration advantage and historical performance in Ventura County areas. While a national Republican surge or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow margins, structural factors such as the district's electoral composition and California's primary system make significant shifts unlikely before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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