Official forecasts from China's meteorological authorities indicate a daily maximum of 19°C for Beijing on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and minimal afternoon warming. This consensus across regional models leaves little room for deviation, aligning with the market's near-certain implied probability for that exact high. Historical May averages in the capital hover several degrees higher, underscoring how today's cooler pattern stands out. Traders have priced in the outcome with high confidence because resolution depends on verified station readings rather than broader trends. Only an unforecasted late-day surge or instrument calibration shift—both rare at this stage—could alter the recorded peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日北京最高溫度?
19°C 99.8%
20°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$141,865 交易量
$141,865 交易量
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.8%
20°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$141,865 交易量
$141,865 交易量
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official forecasts from China's meteorological authorities indicate a daily maximum of 19°C for Beijing on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and minimal afternoon warming. This consensus across regional models leaves little room for deviation, aligning with the market's near-certain implied probability for that exact high. Historical May averages in the capital hover several degrees higher, underscoring how today's cooler pattern stands out. Traders have priced in the outcome with high confidence because resolution depends on verified station readings rather than broader trends. Only an unforecasted late-day surge or instrument calibration shift—both rare at this stage—could alter the recorded peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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