Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu, driving the market-implied probability to 100 percent for that outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan basin is promoting clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and reduced cloud cover, enabling stronger daytime heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture introduces minor model spread that keeps a narrow window open for slight revisions, but official monitoring at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and the final afternoon observation period will determine resolution. Traders are watching for any last adjustments in steering flow or unexpected convective development that could shift the recorded high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日成都最高溫度?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$66,712 交易量
$66,712 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$66,712 交易量
$66,712 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu, driving the market-implied probability to 100 percent for that outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan basin is promoting clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and reduced cloud cover, enabling stronger daytime heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture introduces minor model spread that keeps a narrow window open for slight revisions, but official monitoring at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and the final afternoon observation period will determine resolution. Traders are watching for any last adjustments in steering flow or unexpected convective development that could shift the recorded high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions