**India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts position Lucknow's maximum temperature at 40°C on May 15 under mainly clear skies, driving the market's 95% implied probability for 41°C or below as traders align with this authoritative guidance.** Recent observational data from May 13–14 show highs near 39°C with dry conditions and no heatwave escalation, consistent with pre-monsoon subsidence suppressing extremes despite May's climatological average of around 39–41°C. Model consensus indicates stable high-pressure patterns limiting intensification potential. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearer skies boosting solar heating or minor station microclimate variations, though such shifts remain improbable given current atmospheric stability and forecast confidence; final IMD observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 15?
41°C or below 95%
42°C 2.1%
44°C <1%
43°C <1%
$13,869 交易量
$13,869 交易量
41°C or below
95%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 95%
42°C 2.1%
44°C <1%
43°C <1%
$13,869 交易量
$13,869 交易量
41°C or below
95%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
**India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts position Lucknow's maximum temperature at 40°C on May 15 under mainly clear skies, driving the market's 95% implied probability for 41°C or below as traders align with this authoritative guidance.** Recent observational data from May 13–14 show highs near 39°C with dry conditions and no heatwave escalation, consistent with pre-monsoon subsidence suppressing extremes despite May's climatological average of around 39–41°C. Model consensus indicates stable high-pressure patterns limiting intensification potential. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearer skies boosting solar heating or minor station microclimate variations, though such shifts remain improbable given current atmospheric stability and forecast confidence; final IMD observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions