Recent global ensemble forecasts, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate afternoon highs in Panama City near 32°C on May 18, with the tight spread between the 32°C and 33°C-or-higher outcomes driven by uncertainty in convective cloud development and associated evaporative cooling. Clearer skies under a weak ridge would allow greater insolation and push temperatures to 33°C or above, while scattered afternoon thunderstorms—typical for the region during the early wet season—could limit peak heating to 31–32°C. Historical May climatology shows average highs around 31–34°C, and official monitoring from regional meteorological services will resolve the market based on the daily maximum recorded at the primary station. Updated short-range model guidance expected later today remains the key catalyst for any repricing.