Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山8月15日的最高溫度？
舊金山8月15日的最高溫度？
68-69°F 100.0%
59°F或以下 <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$28,250 交易量
$28,250 交易量
2026-08-15
59°F或以下
否
60-61°F
否
62-63°F
否
64-65°F
否
66-67°F
否
68-69°F
是
70-71°F
否
72-73°F
否
74-75°F
否
76-77°F
否
華氏78度或更高
否
68-69°F 100.0%
59°F或以下 <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$28,250 交易量
$28,250 交易量
2026-08-15
59°F或以下
$756 交易量
否
60-61°F
$510 交易量
否
62-63°F
$4,035 交易量
否
64-65°F
$1,920 交易量
否
66-67°F
$4,244 交易量
否
68-69°F
$6,585 交易量
是
70-71°F
$4,078 交易量
否
72-73°F
$2,264 交易量
否
74-75°F
$1,939 交易量
否
76-77°F
$1,297 交易量
否
華氏78度或更高
$623 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
交易量
$28,250結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$28,250結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions