Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate Seoul will experience a mild late-spring day on May 18 under clear skies and light southwesterly flow, with daytime boundary-layer heating expected to push the official maximum to 25°C or higher. This outlook aligns with mid-May climatology at 37.5°N, where average highs range 23–26°C amid lengthening daylight and the seasonal retreat of cooler northerly air masses. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the central value, with warmer solutions tied to stronger mixing and slight cooling possible only if cloud cover increases or winds shift earlier than modeled. Traders are weighting these variables against the narrow resolution window for the Incheon station reading, sustaining the strong market-implied probability for the upper outcome while leaving limited room for downward revision absent a significant forecast shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日首爾最高溫度?
25°C or higher 85%
24°C 14%
23°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
$88,866 交易量
$88,866 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
14%
25°C or higher
85%
25°C or higher 85%
24°C 14%
23°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
$88,866 交易量
$88,866 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
14%
25°C or higher
85%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate Seoul will experience a mild late-spring day on May 18 under clear skies and light southwesterly flow, with daytime boundary-layer heating expected to push the official maximum to 25°C or higher. This outlook aligns with mid-May climatology at 37.5°N, where average highs range 23–26°C amid lengthening daylight and the seasonal retreat of cooler northerly air masses. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the central value, with warmer solutions tied to stronger mixing and slight cooling possible only if cloud cover increases or winds shift earlier than modeled. Traders are weighting these variables against the narrow resolution window for the Incheon station reading, sustaining the strong market-implied probability for the upper outcome while leaving limited room for downward revision absent a significant forecast shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions