Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum of 27°C in Shanghai under persistent high-pressure ridging that drives subsidence warming and light southerly flow. This stable pattern, with minimal cloud cover and no significant frontal systems, aligns precisely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for the 27°C bin. Mid-May climatological normals near 24–25°C provide useful historical context, yet the current synoptic setup supports a modest above-average reading without exceeding the next threshold. Traders are monitoring the final Shanghai Meteorological Service updates and official observations from Pudong International Airport, where any unexpected increase in moisture or wind shift could realistically push the peak to 28°C or higher.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日上海最高溫度?
27°C 100.0%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$138,391 交易量
$138,391 交易量
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或更高
<1%
27°C 100.0%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$138,391 交易量
$138,391 交易量
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum of 27°C in Shanghai under persistent high-pressure ridging that drives subsidence warming and light southerly flow. This stable pattern, with minimal cloud cover and no significant frontal systems, aligns precisely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for the 27°C bin. Mid-May climatological normals near 24–25°C provide useful historical context, yet the current synoptic setup supports a modest above-average reading without exceeding the next threshold. Traders are monitoring the final Shanghai Meteorological Service updates and official observations from Pudong International Airport, where any unexpected increase in moisture or wind shift could realistically push the peak to 28°C or higher.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions