Current ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a peak temperature in Shanghai on May 18 near 26–28°C, with the market placing the highest implied probability on 27°C. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge combined with light easterly winds is limiting warm-air advection, while relative humidity near 60–70% moderates daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, when average highs typically range from 25–26°C, yet minor variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or local urban heat effects create genuine uncertainty that keeps the top three outcomes within roughly ten percentage points. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will determine the precise maximum before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日上海最高溫度?
27°C 38%
26°C 28%
28°C 23%
29°C 8%
$30,626 交易量
$30,626 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C
38%
28°C
23%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 38%
26°C 28%
28°C 23%
29°C 8%
$30,626 交易量
$30,626 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C
38%
28°C
23%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a peak temperature in Shanghai on May 18 near 26–28°C, with the market placing the highest implied probability on 27°C. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge combined with light easterly winds is limiting warm-air advection, while relative humidity near 60–70% moderates daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, when average highs typically range from 25–26°C, yet minor variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or local urban heat effects create genuine uncertainty that keeps the top three outcomes within roughly ten percentage points. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will determine the precise maximum before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions