Weather model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles has converged on a daytime maximum of 27°C for Shenzhen today, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for that outcome. Persistent high pressure, light winds, and scattered cloud cover are moderating daytime heating in line with typical subtropical spring patterns, where May highs average 26–28°C. Official observations at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport will determine resolution, though localized urban heat effects or slight forecast revisions could still produce a 1°C deviation in either direction. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest ensemble runs showing low variability, leaving little room for alternative temperature thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日深圳最高溫度?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$50,999 交易量
$50,999 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$50,999 交易量
$50,999 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Weather model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles has converged on a daytime maximum of 27°C for Shenzhen today, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for that outcome. Persistent high pressure, light winds, and scattered cloud cover are moderating daytime heating in line with typical subtropical spring patterns, where May highs average 26–28°C. Official observations at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport will determine resolution, though localized urban heat effects or slight forecast revisions could still produce a 1°C deviation in either direction. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest ensemble runs showing low variability, leaving little room for alternative temperature thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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