Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and supporting regional models place Taipei’s daily maximum temperature at 31°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime. Light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and typical pre-Meiyu early-season conditions have produced this consistent projection across official guidance, supporting the market’s near-100% implied probability for the 31°C outcome. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan shows average highs near 28–30°C, so today’s setup aligns with expected warming before the seasonal monsoon front arrives. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering winds could still nudge the peak to 30°C or 32°C, though current model consensus and observational trends indicate low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日臺北氣溫最高?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,618 交易量
$111,618 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,618 交易量
$111,618 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and supporting regional models place Taipei’s daily maximum temperature at 31°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime. Light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and typical pre-Meiyu early-season conditions have produced this consistent projection across official guidance, supporting the market’s near-100% implied probability for the 31°C outcome. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan shows average highs near 28–30°C, so today’s setup aligns with expected warming before the seasonal monsoon front arrives. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering winds could still nudge the peak to 30°C or 32°C, though current model consensus and observational trends indicate low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions