Ensemble weather models and Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts point to afternoon highs near 30–32°C in Taipei on May 18 under a subtropical ridge, supporting the market's peak implied probability at 32°C while distributing risk across nearby bins. Key variables include diurnal heating strength, sea-breeze timing that could cap peaks below 31°C, and any late-day convective clouds reducing solar input. Historical mid-May climatology averages 28–29°C, so current model consensus on warmer conditions explains the tilt toward 31–33°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum reported by CWA stations. New model runs and updated CWA briefings expected later today could shift the distribution ahead of tomorrow's close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日臺北氣溫最高?
32°C 34%
31°C 20%
30°C 15%
33°C 15%
$11,299 交易量
$11,299 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
20%
32°C
34%
33°C
15%
34°C or higher
10%
32°C 34%
31°C 20%
30°C 15%
33°C 15%
$11,299 交易量
$11,299 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
20%
32°C
34%
33°C
15%
34°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ensemble weather models and Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts point to afternoon highs near 30–32°C in Taipei on May 18 under a subtropical ridge, supporting the market's peak implied probability at 32°C while distributing risk across nearby bins. Key variables include diurnal heating strength, sea-breeze timing that could cap peaks below 31°C, and any late-day convective clouds reducing solar input. Historical mid-May climatology averages 28–29°C, so current model consensus on warmer conditions explains the tilt toward 31–33°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum reported by CWA stations. New model runs and updated CWA briefings expected later today could shift the distribution ahead of tomorrow's close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions