Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate a daytime maximum near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow off the Mediterranean Sea that limits cloud cover and allows strong solar heating. Ensemble spreads among ECMWF and GFS runs show modest uncertainty, with 30–31°C outcomes favored because sea-surface temperatures around 22°C moderate extreme warming while minimal wind shear supports efficient boundary-layer mixing. This tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–32°C reflects the narrow range of plausible peak values given current atmospheric conditions, with small shifts in forecast timing or local sea-breeze development able to tip the highest temperature across those thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日特拉維夫的最高溫度?
31°C 38.0%
32°C or higher 33.5%
30°C 31%
29°C 1.0%
$23,931 交易量
$23,931 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
31%
31°C
38%
32°C or higher
33%
31°C 38.0%
32°C or higher 33.5%
30°C 31%
29°C 1.0%
$23,931 交易量
$23,931 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
31%
31°C
38%
32°C or higher
33%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate a daytime maximum near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow off the Mediterranean Sea that limits cloud cover and allows strong solar heating. Ensemble spreads among ECMWF and GFS runs show modest uncertainty, with 30–31°C outcomes favored because sea-surface temperatures around 22°C moderate extreme warming while minimal wind shear supports efficient boundary-layer mixing. This tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–32°C reflects the narrow range of plausible peak values given current atmospheric conditions, with small shifts in forecast timing or local sea-breeze development able to tip the highest temperature across those thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions