Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at 96.5% implied probability, backed by tight agreement across IMGW local guidance, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing peak surface heating limited to 18°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Midday observations from IMGW stations report around 14°C with moderate southerly winds and persistent cloud cover reducing insolation and boundary layer mixing, consistent with climatological May patterns but cooler due to a passing trough. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing for enhanced solar input or a sudden warm advection, potentially nudging to 19°C, though short-range updates at 12Z/18Z reinforce the status quo as observations accumulate through afternoon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
18°C 96.5%
19°C 4.0%
21°C <1%
20°C <1%
$36,065 交易量
$36,065 交易量
2026-05-14
18°C
97%
19°C
4%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 96.5%
19°C 4.0%
21°C <1%
20°C <1%
$36,065 交易量
$36,065 交易量
2026-05-14
18°C
$5,724 交易量
97%
19°C
$3,895 交易量
4%
20°C
$3,080 交易量
<1%
21°C
$1,993 交易量
<1%
22°C
$2,892 交易量
<1%
23°C or higher
$3,901 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at 96.5% implied probability, backed by tight agreement across IMGW local guidance, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing peak surface heating limited to 18°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Midday observations from IMGW stations report around 14°C with moderate southerly winds and persistent cloud cover reducing insolation and boundary layer mixing, consistent with climatological May patterns but cooler due to a passing trough. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing for enhanced solar input or a sudden warm advection, potentially nudging to 19°C, though short-range updates at 12Z/18Z reinforce the status quo as observations accumulate through afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
交易量
$36,065結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at 96.5% implied probability, backed by tight agreement across IMGW local guidance, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing peak surface heating limited to 18°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Midday observations from IMGW stations report around 14°C with moderate southerly winds and persistent cloud cover reducing insolation and boundary layer mixing, consistent with climatological May patterns but cooler due to a passing trough. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing for enhanced solar input or a sudden warm advection, potentially nudging to 19°C, though short-range updates at 12Z/18Z reinforce the status quo as observations accumulate through afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$36,065結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETTrader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature today at 96.5% implied probability, backed by tight agreement across IMGW local guidance, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing peak surface heating limited to 18°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Midday observations from IMGW stations report around 14°C with moderate southerly winds and persistent cloud cover reducing insolation and boundary layer mixing, consistent with climatological May patterns but cooler due to a passing trough. Realistic challenges include prolonged clearing for enhanced solar input or a sudden warm advection, potentially nudging to 19°C, though short-range updates at 12Z/18Z reinforce the status quo as observations accumulate through afternoon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions