**Cool, showery autumn conditions are keeping Warsaw’s September 21 maximum tightly clustered around 15–16 °C.** Multiple forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs) converge on a daytime high of 15 °C under persistent cloud cover, light-to-moderate westerly winds of 15–21 km/h, and scattered showers that limit solar heating. Morning temperatures start near 11 °C and rise only modestly through the afternoon before falling again by evening. This setup explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 15 °C (50 %) and 16 °C (30 %), with 14 °C still carrying an 18.5 % chance if showers are heavier or timing shifts slightly later. Historical September averages for Warsaw hover near 18–20 °C, but the current pattern—marked by a stronger-than-normal westerly flow and above-normal rainfall—has suppressed temperatures several degrees below the climatological norm. No significant model divergence or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest runs, so trader sentiment remains anchored to these modest values.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日華沙的最高溫度？
9月21日華沙的最高溫度？
15°C 51%
16°C 30%
14°C 19%
13°C 3%
最新
$22,905 交易量
最新
$22,905 交易量
2026-09-21
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
19%
15°C
51%
16°C
30%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C或以上
<1%
15°C 51%
16°C 30%
14°C 19%
13°C 3%
最新
$22,905 交易量
最新
$22,905 交易量
2026-09-21
10°C或以下
$267 交易量
<1%
11°C
$211 交易量
<1%
12°C
$168 交易量
<1%
13°C
$1,697 交易量
3%
14°C
$6,968 交易量
19%
15°C
$2,767 交易量
51%
16°C
$7,543 交易量
30%
17°C
$711 交易量
2%
18°C
$645 交易量
<1%
19°C
$760 交易量
<1%
20°C或以上
$1,168 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cool, showery autumn conditions are keeping Warsaw’s September 21 maximum tightly clustered around 15–16 °C.** Multiple forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs) converge on a daytime high of 15 °C under persistent cloud cover, light-to-moderate westerly winds of 15–21 km/h, and scattered showers that limit solar heating. Morning temperatures start near 11 °C and rise only modestly through the afternoon before falling again by evening.
This setup explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 15 °C (50 %) and 16 °C (30 %), with 14 °C still carrying an 18.5 % chance if showers are heavier or timing shifts slightly later. Historical September averages for Warsaw hover near 18–20 °C, but the current pattern—marked by a stronger-than-normal westerly flow and above-normal rainfall—has suppressed temperatures several degrees below the climatological norm. No significant model divergence or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest runs, so trader sentiment remains anchored to these modest values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$22,905結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cool, showery autumn conditions are keeping Warsaw’s September 21 maximum tightly clustered around 15–16 °C.** Multiple forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs) converge on a daytime high of 15 °C under persistent cloud cover, light-to-moderate westerly winds of 15–21 km/h, and scattered showers that limit solar heating. Morning temperatures start near 11 °C and rise only modestly through the afternoon before falling again by evening.
This setup explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 15 °C (50 %) and 16 °C (30 %), with 14 °C still carrying an 18.5 % chance if showers are heavier or timing shifts slightly later. Historical September averages for Warsaw hover near 18–20 °C, but the current pattern—marked by a stronger-than-normal westerly flow and above-normal rainfall—has suppressed temperatures several degrees below the climatological norm. No significant model divergence or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest runs, so trader sentiment remains anchored to these modest values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$22,905結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Cool, showery autumn conditions are keeping Warsaw’s September 21 maximum tightly clustered around 15–16 °C.** Multiple forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs) converge on a daytime high of 15 °C under persistent cloud cover, light-to-moderate westerly winds of 15–21 km/h, and scattered showers that limit solar heating. Morning temperatures start near 11 °C and rise only modestly through the afternoon before falling again by evening. This setup explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 15 °C (50 %) and 16 °C (30 %), with 14 °C still carrying an 18.5 % chance if showers are heavier or timing shifts slightly later. Historical September averages for Warsaw hover near 18–20 °C, but the current pattern—marked by a stronger-than-normal westerly flow and above-normal rainfall—has suppressed temperatures several degrees below the climatological norm. No significant model divergence or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest runs, so trader sentiment remains anchored to these modest values.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions