2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？

2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？ — 討論

SwissTac0 · 2026-01-02T18:56:04.335Z

關於2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

0 71%

1 16%

2 4.2%

5+ 1.0%

$1,155,994 交易量

2026-12-31

$499,076 交易量

58%

$273,903 交易量

16%

$40,847 交易量

$31,649 交易量

$35,000 交易量

$275,520 交易量

0 71%

1 16%

2 4.2%

5+ 1.0%

$1,155,994 交易量

2026-12-31

$499,076 交易量

58%

$273,903 交易量

16%

$40,847 交易量

$31,649 交易量

$35,000 交易量

$275,520 交易量

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0" at 58%, followed by "1" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" is "0" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.2 million traded on “2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 58¢ for "0" in the "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 58% chance that "0" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 58¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 42¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 30, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？" market has a growing discussion of 8 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？

2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？"?

What are the current odds for "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？"?

How will "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？" be resolved?

Can I follow "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？"?

What does a price of 58¢ for "0" mean?

When does the "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？" market close?

What are traders saying about "2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ） ？"?

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2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？

2026年有多少大型火山爆發（ VEI ≥ 4 ）？