Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider’s decisive primary victory and the Illinois 10th district’s established partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+12 and carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters, reflecting consistent performance in recent cycles and Schneider’s repeated general-election margins above 55 percent. With the Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advancing unopposed in March, no competitive primary dynamics have emerged to shift momentum. Traders assign limited probability to an upset because structural factors such as voter registration advantages and fundraising gaps have historically insulated the district from national swings. A late national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such scenarios remain low-probability events given current fundamentals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$15,830 交易量
$15,830 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$15,830 交易量
$15,830 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$14,517 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$1,313 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider’s decisive primary victory and the Illinois 10th district’s established partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+12 and carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters, reflecting consistent performance in recent cycles and Schneider’s repeated general-election margins above 55 percent. With the Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advancing unopposed in March, no competitive primary dynamics have emerged to shift momentum. Traders assign limited probability to an upset because structural factors such as voter registration advantages and fundraising gaps have historically insulated the district from national swings. A late national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such scenarios remain low-probability events given current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$15,830結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider’s decisive primary victory and the Illinois 10th district’s established partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+12 and carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters, reflecting consistent performance in recent cycles and Schneider’s repeated general-election margins above 55 percent. With the Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advancing unopposed in March, no competitive primary dynamics have emerged to shift momentum. Traders assign limited probability to an upset because structural factors such as voter registration advantages and fundraising gaps have historically insulated the district from national swings. A late national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such scenarios remain low-probability events given current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,830結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider’s decisive primary victory and the Illinois 10th district’s established partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+12 and carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters, reflecting consistent performance in recent cycles and Schneider’s repeated general-election margins above 55 percent. With the Republican nominee Carl Lambrecht advancing unopposed in March, no competitive primary dynamics have emerged to shift momentum. Traders assign limited probability to an upset because structural factors such as voter registration advantages and fundraising gaps have historically insulated the district from national swings. A late national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such scenarios remain low-probability events given current fundamentals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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