Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-45% 98.8%
50-55% 2.9%
45-50% 1.7%
35-40% 1.1%
$31,803 交易量
$31,803 交易量
2026-05-31
<30%
1%
30-35%
1%
35-40%
1%
40-45%
99%
45-50%
2%
50-55%
3%
55%+
<1%
40-45% 98.8%
50-55% 2.9%
45-50% 1.7%
35-40% 1.1%
$31,803 交易量
$31,803 交易量
2026-05-31
<30%
$5,437 交易量
1%
30-35%
$2,208 交易量
1%
35-40%
$3,804 交易量
1%
40-45%
$9,241 交易量
99%
45-50%
$3,491 交易量
2%
50-55%
$3,190 交易量
3%
55%+
$4,432 交易量
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
交易量
$31,803結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$31,803結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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