Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於希望運動（Amal） 5.9%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 3.4%
ReLebanon 2.4%
馬拉達運動（MM） 1.9%
$523,065 交易量
$523,065 交易量
2026-05-31
希望運動（Amal）
6%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
3%
ReLebanon
2%
馬拉達運動（MM）
2%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
2%
塔卡多姆黨
1%
聯合黨（UP）
1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
1%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
1%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
1%
真主黨（Hezb）
1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
<1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
<1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
<1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
獨立運動（IM）
<1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
<1%
希望運動（Amal） 5.9%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 3.4%
ReLebanon 2.4%
馬拉達運動（MM） 1.9%
$523,065 交易量
$523,065 交易量
2026-05-31
希望運動（Amal）
$53,497 交易量
6%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
$157,839 交易量
3%
ReLebanon
$2,679 交易量
2%
馬拉達運動（MM）
$2,916 交易量
2%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
$3,323 交易量
2%
塔卡多姆黨
$5,431 交易量
1%
聯合黨（UP）
$2,860 交易量
1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
$3,940 交易量
1%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
$3,637 交易量
1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
$3,985 交易量
1%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
$3,660 交易量
1%
真主黨（Hezb）
$43,639 交易量
1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
$3,454 交易量
1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
$73,303 交易量
<1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
$41,878 交易量
<1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
$5,095 交易量
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
$24,353 交易量
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
$4,430 交易量
<1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
$47,445 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
$6,552 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$3,318 交易量
<1%
獨立運動（IM）
$3,125 交易量
<1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
$22,705 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$523,065結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$523,065結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions