Hong Kong Observatory numerical weather prediction models currently converge on a 23°C overnight minimum for May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime that favors clear skies and moderate radiative cooling. This forecast aligns with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on the 23°C outcome, reflecting trader assessment of short-range model consensus rather than climatological averages. Typical May lows in the region range from 23–26°C, but the current weak monsoon trough and limited cloud cover support the lower end of that spectrum. Resolution hinges on the official Hong Kong Observatory reading; any late-model shift toward increased moisture or stronger onshore flow could push the minimum to 24°C or higher before final observations are recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日香港最低溫度?
23°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
28°C或以上 <1%
19°C <1%
$28,202 交易量
$28,202 交易量
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C或以上
<1%
23°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
28°C或以上 <1%
19°C <1%
$28,202 交易量
$28,202 交易量
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hong Kong Observatory numerical weather prediction models currently converge on a 23°C overnight minimum for May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime that favors clear skies and moderate radiative cooling. This forecast aligns with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on the 23°C outcome, reflecting trader assessment of short-range model consensus rather than climatological averages. Typical May lows in the region range from 23–26°C, but the current weak monsoon trough and limited cloud cover support the lower end of that spectrum. Resolution hinges on the official Hong Kong Observatory reading; any late-model shift toward increased moisture or stronger onshore flow could push the minimum to 24°C or higher before final observations are recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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