Recent forecast runs from major models, including GFS, point to clear skies and stable high pressure over Madrid through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures near 15–16°C. This aligns with the historical average low of 14.8°C for the date while current conditions remain slightly above normal amid a warm late-summer pattern. Trader consensus favors the 14°C-or-below outcome at 54.5% implied probability due to model uncertainty ranges and potential for localized cooling under light winds, though probabilities drop sharply above 16°C as ensemble guidance shows limited downside risk. No significant weather systems are expected to alter the outlook before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月20日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月20日馬德裏最低氣溫？
14°C或以下 58%
15°C 23%
16°C 19%
17°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
14°C或以下
58%
15°C
23%
16°C
19%
17°C
7%
18°C
7%
19°C
5%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C或以上
2%
14°C或以下 58%
15°C 23%
16°C 19%
17°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
14°C或以下
$0 交易量
58%
15°C
$0 交易量
23%
16°C
$0 交易量
19%
17°C
$0 交易量
7%
18°C
$0 交易量
7%
19°C
$0 交易量
5%
20°C
$0 交易量
2%
21°C
$0 交易量
2%
22°C
$0 交易量
2%
23°C
$0 交易量
2%
24°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from major models, including GFS, point to clear skies and stable high pressure over Madrid through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures near 15–16°C. This aligns with the historical average low of 14.8°C for the date while current conditions remain slightly above normal amid a warm late-summer pattern. Trader consensus favors the 14°C-or-below outcome at 54.5% implied probability due to model uncertainty ranges and potential for localized cooling under light winds, though probabilities drop sharply above 16°C as ensemble guidance shows limited downside risk. No significant weather systems are expected to alter the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from major models, including GFS, point to clear skies and stable high pressure over Madrid through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures near 15–16°C. This aligns with the historical average low of 14.8°C for the date while current conditions remain slightly above normal amid a warm late-summer pattern. Trader consensus favors the 14°C-or-below outcome at 54.5% implied probability due to model uncertainty ranges and potential for localized cooling under light winds, though probabilities drop sharply above 16°C as ensemble guidance shows limited downside risk. No significant weather systems are expected to alter the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecast runs from major models, including GFS, point to clear skies and stable high pressure over Madrid through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures near 15–16°C. This aligns with the historical average low of 14.8°C for the date while current conditions remain slightly above normal amid a warm late-summer pattern. Trader consensus favors the 14°C-or-below outcome at 54.5% implied probability due to model uncertainty ranges and potential for localized cooling under light winds, though probabilities drop sharply above 16°C as ensemble guidance shows limited downside risk. No significant weather systems are expected to alter the outlook before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions