Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and high humidity over Manila are keeping overnight lows uncertain, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple models showing early-morning temperatures clustered between roughly 24–26 °C under variable cloud cover and isolated heavy rain. The Intertropical Convergence Zone and lingering southwest monsoon flow sustain elevated moisture and limited radiative cooling, while scattered convective activity can briefly introduce cooler downdrafts or clearer breaks that allow modest drops. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to a 20 °C-or-below outcome and the 24–27 °C band because small shifts in cloud timing or rainfall intensity—common in September’s climatology—can swing the daily minimum by 2–3 °C, with new model runs and surface observations expected to resolve the spread before midnight.