**Current National Weather Service forecasts indicate a sunny Saturday (August 15) with northeast flow and a projected overnight low near 72°F, positioning the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins as the market leaders at 44.5% and 24.5% implied probability.** Northeast winds typically advect cooler maritime air into the region, moderating temperatures relative to typical August southerly flow and aligning with the observed trader consensus around the 70–73°F range. This matches climatological baselines, where mid-August Central Park overnight lows average near 67–70°F, though the broader 2026 summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal warmth overall. Recent model runs show limited spread, with minimal precipitation risk overnight supporting stable boundary-layer conditions and reducing the chance of sharper cooling. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature or wind fields over the next 12–24 hours represent the primary variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日紐約市的最低溫度？
8月15日紐約市的最低溫度？
70-71°F 45%
72-73°F 26%
68-69°F 13%
74-75°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
華氏57度或更低
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
45%
72-73°F
26%
74-75°F
6%
76°F或更高
1%
70-71°F 45%
72-73°F 26%
68-69°F 13%
74-75°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
華氏57度或更低
$300 交易量
<1%
58-59°F
$281 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$437 交易量
1%
62-63°F
$198 交易量
1%
64-65°F
$274 交易量
3%
66-67°F
$178 交易量
4%
68-69°F
$111 交易量
13%
70-71°F
$95 交易量
45%
72-73°F
$211 交易量
26%
74-75°F
$158 交易量
6%
76°F或更高
$433 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service forecasts indicate a sunny Saturday (August 15) with northeast flow and a projected overnight low near 72°F, positioning the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins as the market leaders at 44.5% and 24.5% implied probability.**
Northeast winds typically advect cooler maritime air into the region, moderating temperatures relative to typical August southerly flow and aligning with the observed trader consensus around the 70–73°F range. This matches climatological baselines, where mid-August Central Park overnight lows average near 67–70°F, though the broader 2026 summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal warmth overall. Recent model runs show limited spread, with minimal precipitation risk overnight supporting stable boundary-layer conditions and reducing the chance of sharper cooling.
Upcoming NWS forecast updates and any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature or wind fields over the next 12–24 hours represent the primary variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
交易量
$2,677結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service forecasts indicate a sunny Saturday (August 15) with northeast flow and a projected overnight low near 72°F, positioning the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins as the market leaders at 44.5% and 24.5% implied probability.**
Northeast winds typically advect cooler maritime air into the region, moderating temperatures relative to typical August southerly flow and aligning with the observed trader consensus around the 70–73°F range. This matches climatological baselines, where mid-August Central Park overnight lows average near 67–70°F, though the broader 2026 summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal warmth overall. Recent model runs show limited spread, with minimal precipitation risk overnight supporting stable boundary-layer conditions and reducing the chance of sharper cooling.
Upcoming NWS forecast updates and any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature or wind fields over the next 12–24 hours represent the primary variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,677結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET**Current National Weather Service forecasts indicate a sunny Saturday (August 15) with northeast flow and a projected overnight low near 72°F, positioning the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins as the market leaders at 44.5% and 24.5% implied probability.** Northeast winds typically advect cooler maritime air into the region, moderating temperatures relative to typical August southerly flow and aligning with the observed trader consensus around the 70–73°F range. This matches climatological baselines, where mid-August Central Park overnight lows average near 67–70°F, though the broader 2026 summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal warmth overall. Recent model runs show limited spread, with minimal precipitation risk overnight supporting stable boundary-layer conditions and reducing the chance of sharper cooling. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature or wind fields over the next 12–24 hours represent the primary variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions