**Forecast models and early observations position a 13–14°C minimum as the most probable outcome for Paris on September 16, 2026.** High-pressure influence and northwest winds are supporting gradual overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies, with temperatures already registering around 15–16°C in the early morning hours (roughly 3–5 a.m. local time). This aligns with consensus guidance from GFS-based and regional models showing an expected low near 13–14°C (roughly 55–57°F), slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 11.5°C for the date. Stronger cooling would require clearer skies and lighter winds than currently modeled, while warmer readings would need increased cloud cover or a shift in advection—both low-probability scenarios given the stable synoptic pattern. Market-implied odds heavily favor 13–14°C because real-time model runs and initial station data have remained consistent in this narrow band, with limited upside or downside risk before the official daily minimum is recorded. Upcoming overnight observations and any late-model adjustments from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月16日巴黎最低溫度？
9月16日巴黎最低溫度？
14°C 50%
13°C 38%
12°C 7%
15°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
11°C或以下
5%
12°C
7%
13°C
40%
14°C
57%
15°C
6%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C或以上
<1%
14°C 50%
13°C 38%
12°C 7%
15°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
11°C或以下
$0 交易量
5%
12°C
$304 交易量
7%
13°C
$1,018 交易量
40%
14°C
$1,614 交易量
57%
15°C
$172 交易量
6%
16°C
$16 交易量
<1%
17°C
$10 交易量
<1%
18°C
$10 交易量
<1%
19°C
$16 交易量
<1%
20°C
$16 交易量
<1%
21°C或以上
$16 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and early observations position a 13–14°C minimum as the most probable outcome for Paris on September 16, 2026.**
High-pressure influence and northwest winds are supporting gradual overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies, with temperatures already registering around 15–16°C in the early morning hours (roughly 3–5 a.m. local time). This aligns with consensus guidance from GFS-based and regional models showing an expected low near 13–14°C (roughly 55–57°F), slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 11.5°C for the date.
Stronger cooling would require clearer skies and lighter winds than currently modeled, while warmer readings would need increased cloud cover or a shift in advection—both low-probability scenarios given the stable synoptic pattern. Market-implied odds heavily favor 13–14°C because real-time model runs and initial station data have remained consistent in this narrow band, with limited upside or downside risk before the official daily minimum is recorded. Upcoming overnight observations and any late-model adjustments from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$3,193結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and early observations position a 13–14°C minimum as the most probable outcome for Paris on September 16, 2026.**
High-pressure influence and northwest winds are supporting gradual overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies, with temperatures already registering around 15–16°C in the early morning hours (roughly 3–5 a.m. local time). This aligns with consensus guidance from GFS-based and regional models showing an expected low near 13–14°C (roughly 55–57°F), slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 11.5°C for the date.
Stronger cooling would require clearer skies and lighter winds than currently modeled, while warmer readings would need increased cloud cover or a shift in advection—both low-probability scenarios given the stable synoptic pattern. Market-implied odds heavily favor 13–14°C because real-time model runs and initial station data have remained consistent in this narrow band, with limited upside or downside risk before the official daily minimum is recorded. Upcoming overnight observations and any late-model adjustments from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,193結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Forecast models and early observations position a 13–14°C minimum as the most probable outcome for Paris on September 16, 2026.** High-pressure influence and northwest winds are supporting gradual overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies, with temperatures already registering around 15–16°C in the early morning hours (roughly 3–5 a.m. local time). This aligns with consensus guidance from GFS-based and regional models showing an expected low near 13–14°C (roughly 55–57°F), slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 11.5°C for the date. Stronger cooling would require clearer skies and lighter winds than currently modeled, while warmer readings would need increased cloud cover or a shift in advection—both low-probability scenarios given the stable synoptic pattern. Market-implied odds heavily favor 13–14°C because real-time model runs and initial station data have remained consistent in this narrow band, with limited upside or downside risk before the official daily minimum is recorded. Upcoming overnight observations and any late-model adjustments from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions