**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Paris's highest temperature on September 16, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this at 48%.** Official and ensemble guidance, including runs aligned with Météo-France and GFS data, indicate a high near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwest winds, following a sharp cooldown from 32°C on the 15th as cooler Atlantic air arrives. This aligns closely with the long-term average high of 21.5°C for the date. Low precipitation risk (under 15%) and stable steering patterns support limited day-to-day variability in the final 48 hours before resolution. Traders appear to weight the tight clustering of recent model outputs, with smaller probabilities on 21°C and 23°C capturing residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and exact cloud cover. Further short-range updates from European agencies will likely refine these odds ahead of market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月16日巴黎最高溫度？
9月16日巴黎最高溫度？
22°C 43%
23°C 28%
21°C 18%
24°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
18°C或以下
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
6%
21°C
18%
22°C
43%
23°C
28%
24°C
7%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C或以上
1%
22°C 43%
23°C 28%
21°C 18%
24°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
18°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
19°C
$17 交易量
2%
20°C
$93 交易量
6%
21°C
$34 交易量
18%
22°C
$180 交易量
43%
23°C
$1,451 交易量
28%
24°C
$96 交易量
7%
25°C
$15 交易量
2%
26°C
$12 交易量
1%
27°C
$162 交易量
1%
28°C或以上
$162 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Paris's highest temperature on September 16, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this at 48%.** Official and ensemble guidance, including runs aligned with Météo-France and GFS data, indicate a high near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwest winds, following a sharp cooldown from 32°C on the 15th as cooler Atlantic air arrives. This aligns closely with the long-term average high of 21.5°C for the date. Low precipitation risk (under 15%) and stable steering patterns support limited day-to-day variability in the final 48 hours before resolution. Traders appear to weight the tight clustering of recent model outputs, with smaller probabilities on 21°C and 23°C capturing residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and exact cloud cover. Further short-range updates from European agencies will likely refine these odds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$2,223結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Paris's highest temperature on September 16, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this at 48%.** Official and ensemble guidance, including runs aligned with Météo-France and GFS data, indicate a high near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwest winds, following a sharp cooldown from 32°C on the 15th as cooler Atlantic air arrives. This aligns closely with the long-term average high of 21.5°C for the date. Low precipitation risk (under 15%) and stable steering patterns support limited day-to-day variability in the final 48 hours before resolution. Traders appear to weight the tight clustering of recent model outputs, with smaller probabilities on 21°C and 23°C capturing residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and exact cloud cover. Further short-range updates from European agencies will likely refine these odds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,223結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Paris's highest temperature on September 16, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this at 48%.** Official and ensemble guidance, including runs aligned with Météo-France and GFS data, indicate a high near 21–23°C under mostly cloudy skies and light northwest winds, following a sharp cooldown from 32°C on the 15th as cooler Atlantic air arrives. This aligns closely with the long-term average high of 21.5°C for the date. Low precipitation risk (under 15%) and stable steering patterns support limited day-to-day variability in the final 48 hours before resolution. Traders appear to weight the tight clustering of recent model outputs, with smaller probabilities on 21°C and 23°C capturing residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and exact cloud cover. Further short-range updates from European agencies will likely refine these odds ahead of market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions