**Trader consensus heavily favors a 19°C minimum in Qingdao on September 12, reflecting alignment between current forecast model runs and climatological norms.** Official guidance and ensemble predictions indicate the overnight low will settle near this value under stable southerly flow and moderate humidity, consistent with September historical averages of roughly 19–20°C for the region. The market-implied 90.5% probability on 19°C underscores trader confidence in these data, tempered by typical model uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C. A warmer-than-expected air mass or delayed cooling could push the minimum to 20°C or higher, while stronger radiative cooling under clearer skies might allow brief dips toward 18°C or below before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日青島最低氣溫？
9月12日青島最低氣溫？
19°C 99.5%
16°C 20%
17°C 20%
18°C 20%
$1,134 交易量
$1,134 交易量
2026-09-12
15°C或以下
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
是
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C或以上
否
19°C 99.5%
16°C 20%
17°C 20%
18°C 20%
$1,134 交易量
$1,134 交易量
2026-09-12
15°C或以下
$66 交易量
否
16°C
$32 交易量
否
17°C
$30 交易量
否
18°C
$415 交易量
否
19°C
$80 交易量
是
20°C
$386 交易量
否
21°C
$25 交易量
否
22°C
$25 交易量
否
23°C
$25 交易量
否
24°C
$25 交易量
否
25°C或以上
$25 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 19°C minimum in Qingdao on September 12, reflecting alignment between current forecast model runs and climatological norms.** Official guidance and ensemble predictions indicate the overnight low will settle near this value under stable southerly flow and moderate humidity, consistent with September historical averages of roughly 19–20°C for the region. The market-implied 90.5% probability on 19°C underscores trader confidence in these data, tempered by typical model uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C. A warmer-than-expected air mass or delayed cooling could push the minimum to 20°C or higher, while stronger radiative cooling under clearer skies might allow brief dips toward 18°C or below before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$1,134結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 19°C minimum in Qingdao on September 12, reflecting alignment between current forecast model runs and climatological norms.** Official guidance and ensemble predictions indicate the overnight low will settle near this value under stable southerly flow and moderate humidity, consistent with September historical averages of roughly 19–20°C for the region. The market-implied 90.5% probability on 19°C underscores trader confidence in these data, tempered by typical model uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C. A warmer-than-expected air mass or delayed cooling could push the minimum to 20°C or higher, while stronger radiative cooling under clearer skies might allow brief dips toward 18°C or below before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,134結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus heavily favors a 19°C minimum in Qingdao on September 12, reflecting alignment between current forecast model runs and climatological norms.** Official guidance and ensemble predictions indicate the overnight low will settle near this value under stable southerly flow and moderate humidity, consistent with September historical averages of roughly 19–20°C for the region. The market-implied 90.5% probability on 19°C underscores trader confidence in these data, tempered by typical model uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C. A warmer-than-expected air mass or delayed cooling could push the minimum to 20°C or higher, while stronger radiative cooling under clearer skies might allow brief dips toward 18°C or below before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions