Recent forecast guidance from regional models points to overnight lows in Shenzhen of 26–28°C on August 23, with the market’s tight clustering around 26–27°C reflecting uncertainty in the exact minimum. High humidity near 80% combined with scattered thunderstorms expected through the night will reduce radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping much below climatological August averages of 26–27°C. Light winds and possible cloud cover from monsoon-related convection further limit temperature falls, while any clearer breaks could allow brief dips toward 25°C. Official observations from Shenzhen’s primary station will resolve the market based on the 24-hour minimum, with the final value likely hinging on the timing and intensity of overnight rainfall.