Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34 °C. Key differentiating variables include the timing and coverage of afternoon convection, which can reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, versus periods of clearer skies that allow greater surface heating. Historical August baselines show typical highs near 30 °C, so any delay in rain or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the upper end of the favored range, while earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower side. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日北京最高溫度？
8月24日北京最高溫度？
33°C 31%
34°C 28%
32°C 18%
35°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
7%
32°C
18%
33°C
31%
34°C
28%
35°C
10%
36°C
5%
37°C或以上
3%
33°C 31%
34°C 28%
32°C 18%
35°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
27°C or below
$80 交易量
<1%
28°C
$80 交易量
1%
29°C
$2 交易量
1%
30°C
$20 交易量
2%
31°C
$61 交易量
7%
32°C
$22 交易量
18%
33°C
$406 交易量
31%
34°C
$277 交易量
28%
35°C
$694 交易量
10%
36°C
$262 交易量
5%
37°C或以上
$23 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34 °C. Key differentiating variables include the timing and coverage of afternoon convection, which can reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, versus periods of clearer skies that allow greater surface heating. Historical August baselines show typical highs near 30 °C, so any delay in rain or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the upper end of the favored range, while earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower side. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,927結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34 °C. Key differentiating variables include the timing and coverage of afternoon convection, which can reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, versus periods of clearer skies that allow greater surface heating. Historical August baselines show typical highs near 30 °C, so any delay in rain or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the upper end of the favored range, while earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower side. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,927結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETLatest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34 °C. Key differentiating variables include the timing and coverage of afternoon convection, which can reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, versus periods of clearer skies that allow greater surface heating. Historical August baselines show typical highs near 30 °C, so any delay in rain or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the upper end of the favored range, while earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower side. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions