Recent forecast models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 24 likely falling between 10–12°C, driven by clear skies allowing strong radiative cooling under light westerly winds and dew-point temperatures near 8–10°C. This positions the 7°C-or-below outcome as a tail-risk scenario requiring deeper cold advection or unexpected cloud breaks, while clustered probabilities around 11°C and 12°C reflect model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. With leading outcomes within roughly 15 points, traders appear to weigh the inherent uncertainty in short-range ensemble guidance—where small shifts in high-pressure positioning or humidity can swing the minimum by 2–3°C—against August climatology that rarely sees lows below 9°C. Updated runs tonight will likely tighten these ranges ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日華沙的最低溫度？
8月24日華沙的最低溫度？
11°C 37%
10°C 36%
7°C或以下 35%
12°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
7°C或以下
35%
8°C
9%
9°C
11%
10°C
19%
11°C
30%
12°C
20%
13°C
19%
14°C
8%
15°C
8%
16°C
14%
17°C或更高
2%
11°C 37%
10°C 36%
7°C或以下 35%
12°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
7°C或以下
$6 交易量
35%
8°C
$0 交易量
9%
9°C
$0 交易量
11%
10°C
$4 交易量
19%
11°C
$5 交易量
30%
12°C
$0 交易量
20%
13°C
$0 交易量
19%
14°C
$4 交易量
8%
15°C
$5 交易量
8%
16°C
$5 交易量
14%
17°C或更高
$43 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 24 likely falling between 10–12°C, driven by clear skies allowing strong radiative cooling under light westerly winds and dew-point temperatures near 8–10°C. This positions the 7°C-or-below outcome as a tail-risk scenario requiring deeper cold advection or unexpected cloud breaks, while clustered probabilities around 11°C and 12°C reflect model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. With leading outcomes within roughly 15 points, traders appear to weigh the inherent uncertainty in short-range ensemble guidance—where small shifts in high-pressure positioning or humidity can swing the minimum by 2–3°C—against August climatology that rarely sees lows below 9°C. Updated runs tonight will likely tighten these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
交易量
$73結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 24 likely falling between 10–12°C, driven by clear skies allowing strong radiative cooling under light westerly winds and dew-point temperatures near 8–10°C. This positions the 7°C-or-below outcome as a tail-risk scenario requiring deeper cold advection or unexpected cloud breaks, while clustered probabilities around 11°C and 12°C reflect model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. With leading outcomes within roughly 15 points, traders appear to weigh the inherent uncertainty in short-range ensemble guidance—where small shifts in high-pressure positioning or humidity can swing the minimum by 2–3°C—against August climatology that rarely sees lows below 9°C. Updated runs tonight will likely tighten these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$73結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETRecent forecast models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 24 likely falling between 10–12°C, driven by clear skies allowing strong radiative cooling under light westerly winds and dew-point temperatures near 8–10°C. This positions the 7°C-or-below outcome as a tail-risk scenario requiring deeper cold advection or unexpected cloud breaks, while clustered probabilities around 11°C and 12°C reflect model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. With leading outcomes within roughly 15 points, traders appear to weigh the inherent uncertainty in short-range ensemble guidance—where small shifts in high-pressure positioning or humidity can swing the minimum by 2–3°C—against August climatology that rarely sees lows below 9°C. Updated runs tonight will likely tighten these ranges ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions