**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.** This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees. Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日開普敦最低溫度？
8月24日開普敦最低溫度？
17°C或更高 96%
7°C或以下 95%
15°C 36%
16°C 36%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
7°C或以下
95%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
19%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C
2%
15°C
36%
16°C
36%
17°C或更高
96%
17°C或更高 96%
7°C或以下 95%
15°C 36%
16°C 36%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
7°C或以下
$5 交易量
95%
8°C
$0 交易量
19%
9°C
$0 交易量
19%
10°C
$0 交易量
19%
11°C
$0 交易量
19%
12°C
$0 交易量
19%
13°C
$0 交易量
19%
14°C
$5 交易量
2%
15°C
$5 交易量
36%
16°C
$5 交易量
36%
17°C或更高
$5 交易量
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.**
This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees.
Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET
交易量
$25結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.**
This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees.
Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$25結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.** This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees. Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions