Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日東京的最低溫度？
9月12日東京的最低溫度？
20°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$7,649 交易量
$7,649 交易量
2026-09-12
16°C或以下
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
是
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C或以上
否
20°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$7,649 交易量
$7,649 交易量
2026-09-12
16°C或以下
$87 交易量
否
17°C
$63 交易量
否
18°C
$254 交易量
否
19°C
$1,863 交易量
否
20°C
$1,888 交易量
是
21°C
$3,100 交易量
否
22°C
$157 交易量
否
23°C
$47 交易量
否
24°C
$63 交易量
否
25°C
$63 交易量
否
26°C或以上
$63 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$7,649結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,649結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions